Cohort Profitability Engine
Understand when your cohorts break even and how to get there faster
Cohort matrix: each row = install cohort. One row → CAC, LTV, break-even are for that cohort only. Two+ rows → portfolio (weighted): total CAC = sum of rows; subs/affiliate use total matrix users; ad baseline = user-weighted Week 0. No separate “first week only” result in portfolio mode. Fallback users/CPI apply only if a row is incomplete.
Inputs are saved automatically in this browser (local storage) and restored when you reopen this file.
User acquisition
Optional reference week. Weekly detail title uses the matrix: one row → that week; two+ rows → “Weighted portfolio”. (Week picker: Chrome, Edge, Safari; Firefox 96+.)
Used only if the matrix row has no user count, or when there are no data rows. With 1+ matrix rows, CAC/LTV use matrix users (single cohort = that row; 2+ = sum).
Used for CAC & LTV when a cohort row’s CPI is blank and the first row has no CPI.
Retention
Retention (share of cohort still "active" for ads): week 0 — 60%, week 1 — 30%, weeks 2–7 — 20%, weeks 8–10 — 15%, weeks 11–51 — 10%, week 52+ — 5%.
Affiliate
e.g. 2 means 2% of cohort users generate affiliate revenue.
Recurring: total = converts × $ × (projection weeks ÷ 52), flat each week. One-time: total = converts × $ once, spread evenly across the first 52 life-weeks (or fewer if the projection is shorter); no affiliate revenue after that.
Subscriptions
Cash mode: full price when a bill is due. Paid conversion timing (of eventual subscribers): week 0 — 40%, week 1 — 20%, weeks 2–4 — 10% each, weeks 5–6 — 5% each (renormalized if the projection ends before week 7). Within each arrival week, the monthly/yearly split applies. Billing: monthly every 4 life-weeks from first payment; yearly every 52 life-weeks. Renewal rates apply per billing cycle.
Pricing
Conversion
Renewal (per billing cycle)
Ads — cohort impressions matrix
Enter total ad impressions per cohort per life-week (Week 0 = first week of cohort, etc.). Add/remove cohort rows. CPI per row: leave blank to inherit the first row’s CPI, or the default CPI above if the first row is also blank.
Ad revenue CPM: cohort volume still comes from the matrix above. Choose a single blended CPM, or open format breakdown to weight CPMs by format (banner, video, story, etc.).
One CPM applied to all matrix impressions (after retention scaling).
What-if scenarios (optional)
Users stay fixed for all columns. Week 1+ ad impressions still follow the retention curve from the Week 0 baseline (matrix or override). Override Week 0 ad impressions, CPI, projection length, subscriptions, affiliate, and ad CPM below. Leave a field empty to use the same value as the baseline run (main form above).
Scenario A
Subscription overrides (empty = baseline). Shares are scaled to 100% when needed.
Scenario B
Subscription overrides (empty = baseline). Shares scaled to 100% when needed.
Target mode
Set goals for LTV/CAC and payback timing. After Calculate, a status card next to the summary shows whether the baseline run meets both targets. Payback uses the same life-week index as the model; months follow ~4 life-weeks per month (same as Payback month in the summary).